John Ivison: What an irate steelworker can tell us about the hole Trudeau is in

Justin Trudeau’s exchange with a steelworker at the Algoma plant in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., last Friday suggests two things — that the prime minister’s position is objectively hopeless but that he is not, in fact, totally helpless.

Let me explain. The worker — (and it appears he was a worker, not a Conservative plant, as some online have charged, given he was wearing a Local 2251 shirt in a secure part of the Algoma property at shift change) — was about as rude as Canadian voters ever get when they meet a politician. Namely, he wouldn’t shake hands and told Trudeau he didn’t believe a word he said, before urging the prime minister to “have a nice day.”

The worker blamed Trudeau for the 40 per cent tax rate he said he is paying and for his lack of access to a family doctor.

Since it is unlikely he is paying more than 29 per cent in federal taxes, and doctor provision is clearly a provincial responsibility, it shows the depth of the hole Trudeau is in. It’s said that democracy is the process by which people choose who will get the blame — and the people have decided: it’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault.

That’s not to suggest that the prime minister is not the author of his own misfortune.

He was elected on an agenda to make things more fair for people with aspirations; citizens who wanted to make their own way in life and keep more of their income.

Somewhere along the way, that definition of fairness morphed into an identity agenda to impose equality for people engaged in the culture wars over inclusiveness, Indigenous issues and climate change — a crusade that did not heal divisions but created new ones.

Trudeau’s Twitter bio once read: “Changing the world a little bit every day,” but voters worried about the cost of living, housing availability and interest rates are more concerned about things closer to home.

One event that sticks out in my mind as indicative of this transition from the aspirational agenda to the identity agenda was a tweet in 2018 to comedian Trevor Noah, who was the driving force for an event in South Africa to commemorate Nelson Mandela that featured the singer Beyoncé. Trudeau thanked Noah for organizing the event: “Sorry I can’t be with you but how about Canada pledges $50 million to support education for women and girls around the world? Work for you? Let’s do it.”

In 154 flippant characters Trudeau portrayed himself as an impulsive, profligate friend of the stars, and made it appear as if it were a private donation (it was, in fact, part of a government foreign aid package that had been agreed months in advance).

That incident, and many other similar ones, explain why the Conservatives are now 17-20 points ahead in the polls, while 86 per cent of voters say they want a change of government, according to the most recent Abacus Data poll. The Conservatives have a solid lead in all regions and in all demographic groups. Politics can be fickle but on today’s evidence, the outcome of the next election will be a Conservative win.

Yet, the exchange with the steelworker also suggests that Trudeau is not without agency. The prime minister handled a tense exchange about as well as anyone could, pointing out his government has just imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Chinese steel and saying he respected the worker’s right to vote him from office. “I look forward to everyone exercising their right to vote,” he said.

Long before he won government in the 2015 election, Trudeau was elected to represent a riding in Montreal that was strongly sovereigntist, where large swathes of the electorate resented the Trudeau name. He recounted in his memoir, Common Ground, that he soon found he had a natural affinity for retail politics, and “that up-close-and-personal politicking quickened my pulse.” He recognized that politics is a tactile business and he proved a disarming presence on the doorsteps of hostile voters. “My thought was ‘that person is not going to vote for us but I’m not sure that person is going to vote at all now,’” his then campaign manager, Louis-Alexandre Lanthier, recalled.

In the 2008 election, he was elected MP for Papineau, one of only two new Liberals in Ottawa after Stéphane Dion’s disastrous Green Shift campaign.

In Sault Ste. Marie, Trudeau engaged in the street-level campaigning that has worked for him in the past, and which may be his best chance of salvaging something from the next election.

Ultimately, success or failure will likely depend on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The election is theirs to lose and their real enemy is triumphalism.

To be fair to Poilievre, there have been few signs of complacency or ill-discipline. When he has been intemperate, he has been deliberately so — there is very little that is not carefully thought out.

Conservative insiders say the leader, and the team around him, are obsessed with not getting ahead of themselves. “Talk about what we might do if we win is shut down pretty quickly. No one is taking anything for granted,” one said.

That is just as well. The Conservative lead is large and Canadian political history has few examples of incumbents clawing back such a deficit when the demand for a change of government is so high.

But there are warning signs the Conservatives ignore at their peril. The most recent Abacus poll from late August shows that four in 10 Conservative supporters say their vote is more about disliking Trudeau than liking Poilievre. It is hard to see what the prime minister might do to win back those voters who supported him in previous elections, but we are likely months from an election, he is a known quantity and many voters remain concerned about Poilievre’s perceived “arrogance,” according to the Angus Reid Institute’s polling. Combined with the prospect of strategic voting by NDP, Green and Bloc supporters if Poilievre was poised to win a majority, the potential for volatility remains.

The example of the British Labour Party in 1992 is a cautionary tale of celebrating winning a general election before the vote is held.

Neil Kinnock’s Labour was well ahead of John Major’s Conservatives in all the polls and the party decided to hold a “mega rally,” replete with fireworks, music and ticker-tape at an arena in Sheffield a week before the vote.

Meanwhile, Major had gone back to basics, standing on a soapbox in the drizzle, to address voters.

Pollsters and the media expected a Labour win after 13 years of Margaret Thatcher and Major. In the event, the slick mega-rally elicited more contempt than excitement, and the Conservatives won another majority.

It will take more than handing out doughnuts at the factory gates to reverse the fortunes of the Canadian Liberal party. More fundamental policy changes will be needed, starting with (at least) freezing the consumer carbon tax.

But if Trudeau is to rebuild his prospects, he has to start by going back to basics.

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